We like to think Presidential campaigns are fought over issues, but in the final analysis the deciding factor is often the personality of the candidate. Voters have a basic need to feel comfortable with their President therefore the likeability factor of the candidates often trumps other considerations.
Ronald Reagan had the highest likeability factor of any recent President, and in some quarters the same can be said for Bill Clinton. Both attracted votes from people who disagreed with their policies -- sometimes strongly -- but who simply felt more at ease with them personally.
As the 2008 campaign gathers steam, however, the shoe may be on the other foot. The biggest complaint among the conservative base of the Republican Party at the moment is the unsuitability of the three leading contenders for the nomination: U.S. Sen. John McCain; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Conservatives can, and do, poke holes in the record of all three front runners and have been consigned to hoping a second tier candidate will break through to the top of the pack, or trying to decide which of the top contenders is the least offensive. There appears to be little of the enthusiasm that animated the GOP ranks during Reagan's campaigns, or even those mounted by the current President Bush.
Republicans, as were the Democrats of 2004, are now united by hatred and fear of the other party's probably nominee, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton is possessed of little of the charm that carried her president husband so far, and is in fact facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Illinois Sen. Barak Obama. The fear of a possible Hillary Clinton presidency is motivating many otherwise disillusioned conservatives to action.
The worst-case scenario for Republicans is that one of the current three front-runners ends up with the nomination, and either Obama or former North Carolina Senator John Edwards upsets Clinton for the Democrat nomination. Both Obama and Edwards vastly outpace Hillary in likeability and could put Republicans in exactly the same predicament they themselves were in in 2004.
